Each quarter we explore a topic that we believe is relevant for our clients in understanding the current investment environment and the markets.
In January, we published our 2015 Global Asset Allocation Review, and throughout the year we revisit this work based on new and updated information that may influence our outlook for the financial markets. In this piece, we review economies, markets and valuations and provide commentary on changes in 2015.
In late June, two debt crises caught the attention of investors everywhere. Greece appeared to be close to the precipice of an unprecedented default on loans to the European Union (EU) governing bodies. In a less headline grabbing announcement, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico declared that it needed to renegotiate and lower its debt commitments to creditors.
From its peak last June, the price of a barrel of crude oil fell 60% to its low in this year’s first quarter. While such a decline is unusual, it has happened before. Examining past declines and the reasons behind those, we explore potential winners and losers, as well as what might happen in the oil industry from here.
The purpose of the Aureus annual global asset allocation review is to assess the risks and opportunities available in global financial markets and their potential impact on the investment portfolios of our clients. Our views are expressed over two frameworks:
Good fortune has certainly shined on investors, particularly those investing in the equity markets. For the past five years many equity markets have performed well above historic averages. While we believe that conditions remain positive for equity markets, we also believe repeating these elevated results for the next five years may be a challenge. In this paper we address the recent performance of the U.S. Equity markets within an historic perspective and review expectations for the coming years.
The decline in global interest rates from already historically low levels at the beginning of this year has caught many investors by surprise. At the end of 2013, expectations were for increasing worldwide growth and inflation, which should have resulted in somewhat higher interest rates. Yet, in virtually every important country, rates on government bonds have fallen since January.
2013 was an excellent year if you invested in stocks. U.S. equity markets led the way, advancing over 30% for the year and achieving record highs for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrials. Developed foreign equity markets also fared well with most delivering double-digit returns.
It has been five years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the unofficial beginning of the global financial crisis. While the Lehman bankruptcy occurred in September 2008, the record will show that the U.S. recession actually started in December 2007 and ended in the summer of 2009. Some indicators have returned to well above their pre-crisis peaks, while a number of others have lagged. In this piece we review the primary causes of the crisis and discuss the uneven recovery we have experienced to date.
The investment topic of the year, so far, seems to be the elevated level of the US stock market. In May 2013, the S&P 500 achieved an all-time closing high of 1669. Despite a correction in June, the index closed at the highest quarter-end level in history. Over the years we find that at new highs (and new lows) emotional involvement increases with each session. Experience tells us that the key factor at these high and low points should not be emotional reaction to what has happened but a strong conviction about what is coming next.
We believe that 2012 was a watershed year for Europe. New leadership at the European Central Bank (ECB), new political leaders in Italy, Spain, and Greece, and a new and Read More