One of the lasting lessons from the 2016 Presidential election is that polls and pundits can be wrong. While early, the 2020 election appears to be tilting in favor of the Democratic party – though, again, that would be relying on fallible polls and pundits. Regardless of the election outcome, we believe the current recession and pandemic response will lead to an expansion of government’s role in society, as it has with past major crises.
From an investment perspective, we are interested in exploring potential fundamental changes in policies, programs, and budgets that might accompany the election of one of the presidential candidates. In this piece we will look at three areas that may impact the investment landscape – taxes, trade, and government spending.